Forecasting

Andrew N. Staniforth's new book provides a comprehensive and unified account of the fundamental equations for climate and weather prediction models, emphasizing generality, scientific rigor, and unification in atmospheric and oceanic modeling.

Dr. Atlas highlights from some of the research that he has been involved in over the last 50 years and shares his personal experiences.

In this webinar, Phil Klotzbach discusses how active the season was, notable storms and impacts, and controversial topics such as the value of the Saffir-Simpson scale and the Cone of Uncertainty.
 

Bow echoes indicate the potential for severe weather. Ted Best documents the evolution of a bow echo MCS across southern Minnesota. 

Join Matthew Cappucci of the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang as he describes his path to success, offers advice for building your career your way, and reflects on what the meteorologist of the future will be like. 

Lt. Col. Nicole Mitchell takes the AMS Weather Band inside the missions and experiences of the renowned Hurricane Hunters! This special event also features discussion with Bryan Norcross as moderator.

Take a step into the studio at a national weather network to see how a 24/7 production of weather forecasts works.

Meet Justin Pullin: deputy chief of staff, NWS; and chair on AMS board for early career professionals. 

In this webinar, a panel of distinguished guests discuss Superstorm Sandy's legacy, its lasting impacts, and the lessons we have learned from that remarkable storm. 

Scientists have encountered difficulty determining long-term hurricane trends “Only hurricanes that affected people’s lives were known and reported,” notes Suzana Camargo of Columbia University. However, Camargo and colleagues created an algorithm that identified tropical cyclones back to 1850 in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) dataset, which uses historical global climate observations to reconstruct weather patterns.

Explore how Penn State’s online Weather Forecasting Certificate program can turn weather enthusiasts and those who work in weather-related careers into weather information power users to enhance their hobbies or careers.
 

In the photograph file of the U. S. Weather Bureau at Washington is an odd-appearing weather map, as big as an ordinary letter head, done in pale blue-green ink on white paper, and carefully preserved under a celluloid "glass." Someday this rather crude little map will possess great historic interest. If you examine it carefully you see that its every line is made up of many short lines, running parallel to each other and very close together, in the top-to-bottom direction on the paper.

How do we predict the size of hail? What environmental parameters should forecasters be looking at in order to predict hail? These are just some of the questions driving the meteorological research of Professor John Allen and his team at Central Michigan University (CMU).

Weather service providers around the world offer the public forecasts and warnings to improve decision making and protect life and property. Recent surveys have found that, in the United States, weather news is one of the most popular items in the media (Pew Research Center 2008; Wilson 2008). In fact, it has been estimated that 300 billion forecasts are obtained by U.S. adults on an annual basis (Lazo et al. 2009). But there are very few studies that look at how and why the public gets, reads, and responds to weather information, even though this research is fundamental to the design of weather products and communication strategies.

Did you know that snow can fall at temperatures above freezing? In this presentation from the 2022 AMS Weather Band Community and Citizen Science Symposium, Jeff Uhlik describes the impact of community engagement through the Tahoe Rain or Snow project. The group is working to reduce inaccuracies in determining precipitation type by estimating the temperature of the rain-snow boundary, which is used in weather forecasts and hydrologic models. With help from Tahoe Rain or Snow weather spotters, they have been able to record evidence of snow consistently falling at above-freezing temperatures in the Sierra Nevada. This project is now expanding in 21/22 to include many parts of the Western US.

In this presentation from the 2022 AMS Weather Band Community and Citizen Science Symposium, Craig Lowe shows how Bahamian Storm and Hurricane Interceptors came to be and what they do to assist The Bahamas Department of Meteorology and The National Emergency Management Agency with valuable information on active Weather Threats.

Ken Pomeroy has worked in basketball for 15 years, providing analytics for college basketball teams through his web site and consulting for NBA teams since 2003. His work has been used by coaches, media, and fans, and his ratings are used by the NCAA’s basketball committee to help select teams for its postseason tournament. But his path to the sport began as a grad student in Atmospheric Science at University of Wyoming and then as a meteorologist with the National Weather Service for 12 years, where he learned the science of making predictions. Many principles of weather prediction have direct application to predicting basketball outcomes, both for players and teams. In this talk for the Weather Band, Ken discusses his background in weather prediction and how the lessons he learned there helped him succeed with sports analytics.