A Deep Dive into How Skiers and Snowmobilers Use Winter Weather Forecasts

Weather service providers around the world offer the public forecasts and warnings to improve decision making and protect life and property. Recent surveys have found that, in the United States, weather news is one of the most popular items in the media (Pew Research Center 2008; Wilson 2008). In fact, it has been estimated that 300 billion forecasts are obtained by U.S. adults on an annual basis (Lazo et al. 2009). But there are very few studies that look at how and why the public gets, reads, and responds to weather information, even though this research is fundamental to the design of weather products and communication strategies.

So let’s take a deeper look at one type of audience, namely winter sports enthusiasts, and how they incorporate weather forecasts into their behavior and decision making.

Winter sports tourism, including skiing, snowboarding, snowmobiling, ice fishing, and other snow- and ice-related recreational activities, is an important market segment in North America. In North America, direct annual revenues associated with skiing and snowboarding are estimated at nearly USD$7 billion, with snowmobiling estimated at USD$34 billion. The Canadian ski/snowboard and snowmobile share of these revenues is approximately one-fifth and one-quarter, respectively. The following takes a closer look at how winter recreation in the province of Ontario, Canada intersects with weather forecasting. 

Ontario has a population of 13.5 million (38.7% of Canada’s population), with open farmland near large urban areas that typically receive abundant snowfall throughout the winter season. During the 2011/12 winter ski season, Ontario snow resorts generated an estimated CAD$228 million in revenue from tourists and recreationalists. During the same season, direct expenditure generated by snowmobiling in the province was estimated at over CAD$1 billion.

In order to better understand how they used weather products, researchers surveyed almost two thousand skiers, snowboarders, and snowmobilers who visited resorts in Ontario. As illustrated above, almost all skiers/snowboarders (>99%) and snowmobilers (97%) check or listen to one weather forecast source when planning an outing to a snow resort or snowmobile trail. On average, skiers/snowboarders gather weather information from three sources and snowmobilers from four sources. The graph below details the variety of sources consulted. Two sources are utilized the most, these being national weather web pages (e.g., Environment Canada and the Weather Network) and snow resorts or snowmobile club web pages. Snowmobilers rely more on the former source than skiers/snowboarders (86% and 70%, respectively). Almost half of the skiers/snowboarders (47%) and snowmobilers (44%) obtain weather forecasts from both of these sources.

The importance of Internet and mobile sources for weather information is also evident, with 99% of skiers/snowboarders and 95% of snowmobilers gathering information in these ways. This includes the use of smartphone applications and social media by skiers/snowboarders (38%) and snowmobilers (48%), in addition to national weather web pages and snow resort or snowmobile club web pages. While traditional sources of communication are used less frequently, television remains an important source, with 54% of skiers/snowboarders and 70% of snowmobilers obtaining forecast information from TV weather stations or TV news. More than one-third of snowmobilers also use the radio as a source of weather information (38%), with newspapers sourced the least by both sample groups (≤8%). Less than 1% of respondents rely exclusively on traditional sources for weather forecast information.

To better understand how weather forecast information is perceived, respondents were asked to rate the importance of 18 forecast variables when planning a trip to a snow resort or snowmobile trail from one (extremely unimportant) to five (extremely important). 

Far and away, skiers, snowboarders, and snowmobilers were most concerned about precipitation. Reflecting Ontario’s location near the Great Lakes, the chance of rain and freezing rain caused the most concern among survey takers. The timing of the rain and the timing of freezing rain are also important, with mean importance scores of 4.1 and 4.2 by skiers/snowmobilers and 4.2 and 4.0 for snowmobilers. Perhaps surprisingly, information on snow, including the probability of snow, amount of snow, and the timing of snow, were somewhat less important to both sample groups, with snow information being slightly more important to snowmobilers than to skiers/snowboarders. Nevertheless, ≥61% of respondents stated the probability of snow and the amount of snow as either important or extremely important, and ≤15% stated these variables as unimportant or extremely unimportant. 

Temperature attributes, including cold, warm, and wind chill temperature, were less important to respondents than the occurrence of rain or freezing rain, with mean importance scores between 3.3 and 3.9 across both sample groups. And interestingly, sun/cloud conditions and radar/satellite image were not seen as very important by respondents. 

To examine how skiers/snowboarders and snowmobilers use forecasts when planning an outing, respondents were asked to indicate how frequently they access weather information for different purposes. When asked how often they use the forecast to help with decisions about clothing for themselves or their children, 67% of skiers/snowboarders and 51% of snowmobilers state that they always use the forecast to help with their decision making, with an additional 19% and 21%, respectively, using the forecast more than half the time. It is possible that skiers/snowboarders use weather forecasts more when deciding on how to dress themselves or their children because they are more directly exposed to the outdoor thermal conditions and rely on the layering of clothing to keep warm during winter weather conditions. Conversely, snowmobilers’ attire (especially facial coverage) is typically warmer, with the additional option to electrically heat their apparel, minimizing concern over thermal discomfort.

When asked about planning travel, skiers/snowboarders use the forecast more than snowmobilers, with 73% of skiers/snowboarders using the forecast always or more than half the time when traveling to a snow resort, compared to 58% for snowmobilers traveling to a snowmobile trail. These findings may be associated with differences in travel distances between the two groups, but available data provide information only on whether the travel distance exceeds 40 km and are not sufficient to explore this in depth. Rather, the survey data indicate that the vast majority of respondents in both sample groups (90% of skiers/snowboarders and 81% of snowmobilers) typically travel more than 40 km from their home in order to participate in activities at snow resorts or on snowmobile trails.

To better understand how weather forecasts affect the decision to participate in a winter recreational activity, respondents were asked which, if any, weather forecast variables would stop them from going skiing/snowboarding or snowmobiling. The survey results show that 84% of skiers/snowboarders and 81% of snowmobilers would rethink going to a snow resort or snowmobile trail as a result of a weather forecast. Rain and freezing rain were the greatest deterrents for both skiers/snowboarders (89% and 93%) and snowmobilers (96% and 81%). The majority of skiers/snowboarders (56%) would also be stopped by high wind chill and a majority of snowmobilers (61%) would be turned away by warm temperatures. Few respondents in both sample groups would be bothered by sun/cloud conditions (<2%) or by other forecast variables including lack of snow, high winds, and fog (<4%).

Interestingly, the survey showed that skiers/snowboarders and snowmobilers have less variability in their weather sources than the public at large. Most of them rely on two primary sources for their weather information: national weather web pages and snow resort or snowmobile organization web pages. In addition, almost all skiers/snowboarders and snowmobilers rely on Internet and mobile communication as a source of weather information, with a high usage of smart phone applications (30% and 42%, respectively), leading to the conclusion that winter recreationists are relying on primarily nontraditional outlets for weather information. 

Nonetheless, all of these survey results once again demonstrate that weather matters, and underscore the importance of understanding where and how an audience accesses information to deliver the best possible weather products.

This article has been adapted specifically for the AMS Weather Band from “Weather Forecast Use for Winter Recreation” by Michelle Rutty and Jean Andrey, which was published in July 2014 in Weather, Climate, and Society. Any errors or omissions may be attributed to AMS Staff. Copyright remains with the AMS