Forecasting

  • Oct 5, 2022
The Mission to Improve Social Science Data Collection
August 30, 2023
The Mission to Improve Social Science Data Collection

Efforts are underway to collect real-event observations, like post-tornado surveys, to better understand human behavior during weather events. Organizations, including the National Severe Storms Laboratory and National Weather Service, are using standardized surveys and citizen science apps to gather data and improve insights into meteorological questions.

By Kim Klockow McClain
August 23, 2023
Towards the "Perfect" Weather Warning

In this webinar, Brian Golding will discuss how the weather enterprise can collaborate to deliver more effective warnings that save lives and reduce disruption during extreme weather in our changing climate conditions.

Impact-Based Forecasts & Warnings
July 25, 2023
Impact-Based Forecasts & Warnings

In this webinar, Sally Potter gives us an overview of her research on impact-based forecasts and warnings, as well as on the challenges and benefits from an institutional perspective.

Spring Season Review: Won't soon be forgotten
July 20, 2023
Spring Season Review: Won't soon be forgotten

In this webinar, panelists discuss these and more recent weather phenomena of 2023.

Drone Forecasting, Go-Kits, and Carbon Dioxide Reactors: The Latest News
Drone Forecasting, Go-Kits, and Carbon Dioxide Reactors: The Latest News

Here are a few of the news stories that we've been following in the last week. Do you have a story we missed? Share it in the community!

Wireless Wonder: A History of Radar Use for Weather Operations Part I
Wireless Wonder: A History of Radar Use for Weather Operations Part I

The earliest origins of radar meteorology are difficult to uncover. The secrecy surrounding radar in World War II delayed reporting about technological breakthroughs until 1945 and later. But as far as can be determined, radio-location technology was fairly similar across different nations at the outbreak of the war. British work was slightly more advanced, largely due to the efforts of Sir Robert A. Watson-Watt. A Scottish physicist and meteorologist, Watson-Watt was a fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society by 1915, published a paper on radio waves created by lightning in 1922, and delivered the Symons Memorial Lecture in 1929 on ‘‘Weather and Wireless.’’ 

Weather Maps by Radio
Weather Maps by Radio

In the photograph file of the U. S. Weather Bureau at Washington is an odd-appearing weather map, as big as an ordinary letter head, done in pale blue-green ink on white paper, and carefully preserved under a celluloid "glass." Someday this rather crude little map will possess great historic interest. If you examine it carefully you see that its every line is made up of many short lines, running parallel to each other and very close together, in the top-to-bottom direction on the paper.

By Dr. B.M. Varney
The Crossover: Meteorology and Basketball with Ken Pomeroy
The Crossover: Meteorology and Basketball with Ken Pomeroy

Ken Pomeroy has worked in basketball for 15 years, providing analytics for college basketball teams through his web site and consulting for NBA teams since 2003. His work has been used by coaches, media, and fans, and his ratings are used by the NCAA’s basketball committee to help select teams for its postseason tournament. But his path to the sport began as a grad student in Atmospheric Science at University of Wyoming and then as a meteorologist with the National Weather Service for 12 years, where he learned the science of making predictions. Many principles of weather prediction have direct application to predicting basketball outcomes, both for players and teams. In this talk for the Weather Band, Ken discusses his background in weather prediction and how the lessons he learned there helped him succeed with sports analytics.

A Deep Dive into How Skiers and Snowmobilers Use Winter Weather Forecasts
A Deep Dive into How Skiers and Snowmobilers Use Winter Weather Forecasts

Weather service providers around the world offer the public forecasts and warnings to improve decision making and protect life and property. Recent surveys have found that, in the United States, weather news is one of the most popular items in the media (Pew Research Center 2008; Wilson 2008). In fact, it has been estimated that 300 billion forecasts are obtained by U.S. adults on an annual basis (Lazo et al. 2009). But there are very few studies that look at how and why the public gets, reads, and responds to weather information, even though this research is fundamental to the design of weather products and communication strategies.

Elevating Meteorological Understanding on Everest: Installing the Highest Weather Stations on Earth
Elevating Meteorological Understanding on Everest: Installing the Highest Weather Stations on Earth

Watch this presentation from the research team that installed the highest weather stations on earth: at the summit of Mount Everest. 

You'll also learn why there's such a desperate need for more high elevation weather observations and the challenges that the team faced in getting their gear where it needed to be.

By Baker Perry, Tom Matthews, Kyler Abernathy, Deepak Aryal, Dibas Shrestha, Arbindra Khadka, Aurora Elmore
CHAT: The Colorado Hail Accumulation from Thunderstorms Project
CHAT: The Colorado Hail Accumulation from Thunderstorms Project

Deep hail accumulations, sometimes up to 50 cm in depth, have occurred frequently enough to catch the attention of the National Weather Service (NWS), the general public, and social/digital media outlets.

Despite the extreme nature of these storms, adequate reports or measurements of accumulated hail depth are currently not collected or archived, and products to track or forecast these events do not exist, preventing guidance from being issued to emergency responders, transportation departments, and the general public.

By Katja Friedrich, Robinson Wallace, Bernard Meier, Nezette Rydell, Wiebke Deierling, Evan Kalina, Brian Motta, Paul Schlatter, Thomas Schlatter, and Nolan Doesken
Moving Hail Forecasting Forward
December 20, 2020
Moving Hail Forecasting Forward

How do we predict the size of hail? What environmental parameters should forecasters be looking at in order to predict hail? These are just some of the questions driving the meteorological research of Professor John Allen and his team at Central Michigan University (CMU).

By AMS Staff
How Time Flies...10 years since Superstorm Sandy
October 27, 2022
How Time Flies...10 years since Superstorm Sandy

In this webinar, a panel of distinguished guests discuss Superstorm Sandy's legacy, its lasting impacts, and the lessons we have learned from that remarkable storm. 

Being a Meteorologist at a National Weather Network
May 31, 2022
Being a Meteorologist at a National Weather Network

Take a step into the studio at a national weather network to see how a 24/7 production of weather forecasts works.

The Hidden Cost of Heat Waves: Citizen Science and the Harlem Heat Project
The Hidden Cost of Heat Waves: Citizen Science and the Harlem Heat Project

In an average year, high temperatures kill more people in the United States than all other weather-related phenomena combined (NOAA 2016), and in New York City two-thirds of heat-related deaths occur at home. Those most at risk are the ill and elderly, who tend to be home throughout the day. Yet few studies capture indoor residential temperatures in non-air-conditioned homes. 

By Brian Vant-Hull, Prathap Ramamurthy, Brooke Havlik, Carlos Jusino, Cecil Corbin-Mark, Matthew Schuerman, John Keefe, Julia Kumari Drapkin, and A. Adam Glenn
Life Changing Forecasts: Helping to Manage Meningitis in the West African Sahel
Life Changing Forecasts: Helping to Manage Meningitis in the West African Sahel

Meningitis epidemics have a devastating impact on the region and its people. Even with treatment, the fatality rate can exceed 10%, and 10%–20% of survivors experience long-term after effects including brain damage and hearing loss. Meningitis can push a family into severe poverty, which is especially significant in a region where the annual per capita income ranges from US$500 to US$1500. Weather forecasting can play a significant role in vaccination campaigns and prioritize where vaccines should be delivered. 

By Rajul Pandya, Abraham Hodgson, Mary H. Hayden, Patricia Akweongo, Thomas Hopson, Abudulai Adams Forgor, Tom Yoksas, Maxwell Ayindenaba Dalaba, Vanja Dukic, Roberto Mera, Arnaud Dumont, Kristen McCormack, Dominic Anaseba, Timothy Awine, Jennifer Boehnert,
Interview: Understanding the Science of Uncertainty
February 10, 2023
Interview: Understanding the Science of Uncertainty

BAMS recently spoke with Tim Palmer about his new book, The Primacy of Doubt: From Quantum Physics to Climate Change, How the Science of Uncertainty Can Help Us Understand Our Chaotic World.

Tags: Interview, Readings, BAMS
Readings: Interview - Reinforcing the Foundations of Climate and Weather Prediction
March 24, 2023
Readings: Interview - Reinforcing the Foundations of Climate and Weather Prediction

Andrew N. Staniforth's new book provides a comprehensive and unified account of the fundamental equations for climate and weather prediction models, emphasizing generality, scientific rigor, and unification in atmospheric and oceanic modeling.

The 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season: A Highly Abnormal Average Season
November 30, 2022
The 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season: A Highly Abnormal Average Season

In this webinar, Phil Klotzbach discusses how active the season was, notable storms and impacts, and controversial topics such as the value of the Saffir-Simpson scale and the Cone of Uncertainty.
 

The Texas-Minnesota MCV - Bow Echo
November 21, 2022
Bow Echo

Bow echoes indicate the potential for severe weather. Ted Best documents the evolution of a bow echo MCS across southern Minnesota. 

By Ted Best and Ruth Milburn