Forecasting

  • Oct 5, 2022
Wireless Wonder: A History of Radar Use for Weather Operations Part I
Wireless Wonder: A History of Radar Use for Weather Operations Part I

The earliest origins of radar meteorology are difficult to uncover. The secrecy surrounding radar in World War II delayed reporting about technological breakthroughs until 1945 and later. But as far as can be determined, radio-location technology was fairly similar across different nations at the outbreak of the war. British work was slightly more advanced, largely due to the efforts of Sir Robert A. Watson-Watt. A Scottish physicist and meteorologist, Watson-Watt was a fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society by 1915, published a paper on radio waves created by lightning in 1922, and delivered the Symons Memorial Lecture in 1929 on ‘‘Weather and Wireless.’’ 

A Smattering of Books for the Amateur Weather Enthusiast
A Smattering of Books for the Amateur Weather Enthusiast

I tend to go overboard for books. I value my library card more than my driver’s license. But then, I’m a book addict. 

There are so many books on meteorology that it can stagger the mind. You really don’t need to read a ton of books if you are an amateur, but you should get some orientation and familiarity with terms and processes.

By Ben May, Board Director of the National Weather Association Foundation
Tags: cruising
Hand Analysis in a Digital Age
Hand Analysis in a Digital Age

Dive into the fascinating history of weather maps with Barbara Mayes Boustead. In this presentation she reveals the science and process of hand analysis and discusses its relevance in a world of digital maps. 

Tags: cruising
Creating a Forecast for Your Location: Procedure and Analysis for the Amateur Weather Enthusiast
Creating a Forecast for Your Location: Procedure and Analysis for the Amateur Weather Enthusiast

I am approaching this particular blog post with a bit of consternation and reservation. Most of us are so enthralled by the progression of daily weather that we become amateur weather observers.

By Ben May, Board Director of the National Weather Association Foundation
Tags: cruising
Can We Predict Weather on Mars as We Do on Earth?
Can We Predict Weather on Mars as We Do on Earth?

A very thrilling, nervous, and euphoric moment occurred back on February 18th with the touchdown of NASA’s Martian Perseverance Rover. The Perseverance Rover is a component of the larger Mars Exploration Program (MEP) and includes a robotic helicopter named Ingenuity. Perseverance confirmed a successful touchdown within the Jezero crater at 3:55 pm EST, ending a 204-day flight from Earth to its new home, Mars. Meteorological instruments, similar to the Rover Environmental Monitoring Station (REMS) of the Martian rover, Curiosity, have begun recording surface air and ground temperature, wind speed and direction, pressure, relative humidity, and ultraviolet (UV) radiation.

By Dr. J. Cory Demko
Lake Effect Snow:  The Most Intense Snow On Earth
Lake Effect Snow: The Most Intense Snow On Earth

Join Warning Coordination Meteorologist Erik Heden as he covers the processes behind lake effect snow, how to forecast lake effect snow, and some historical lake effect storms that have occurred.

Severe Cold Waves on the Texas Coast
Severe Cold Waves on the Texas Coast

Severe cold waves on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico are infrequent but of great moment. Human habitation and dress are not here adapted to extreme cold; cattle and other livestock are inadequately sheltered from winter extremes, and tropical fruits and winter truck are subject to extensive damage and occasional total destruction from abnormally low temperatures. In economic loss and human suffering, a severe cold wave, reaching our southern and southeastern borders, ranks with the hurricane.

By I.R. Tannehill
Catastrophic Midwest Derecho of August 10, 2020
Catastrophic Midwest Derecho of August 10, 2020

Explore the meteorology behind the most destructive thunderstorm complex in U.S. history in this exciting webinar with renowned meteorologist and science writer Bob Henson. 

By Bob Henson
Mission Critical: Weather Prediction for Space Launches
Mission Critical: Weather Prediction for Space Launches

How does a rocket get to space? For that, it needs the help of a very special team of weather forecasters. 

The 45th Space Wing Weather Squadron (45 WS) provides comprehensive weather services to America’s space program at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), NASA’s Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Patrick Air Force Base. These services include weather support for pre-launch, launch, post-launch, routine weather forecast, 24/7 watches/warnings, flight briefings, and special missions. 

By William Roeder
Making WAVES: Women Meteorologists in World War II
Making WAVES: Women Meteorologists in World War II

As World War II progressed, a shortage of technical officers left the U.S. increasingly vulnerable. In an effort to shore up defenses, what was then the U.S. Weather Bureau, the U.S. Air Force, and the U.S. Navy began to recruit women hydrologists, mathematicians, and meteorologists.

By J.M. Lewis
Life Changing Forecasts: Helping to Manage Meningitis in the West African Sahel
Life Changing Forecasts: Helping to Manage Meningitis in the West African Sahel

Meningitis epidemics have a devastating impact on the region and its people. Even with treatment, the fatality rate can exceed 10%, and 10%–20% of survivors experience long-term after effects including brain damage and hearing loss. Meningitis can push a family into severe poverty, which is especially significant in a region where the annual per capita income ranges from US$500 to US$1500. Weather forecasting can play a significant role in vaccination campaigns and prioritize where vaccines should be delivered. 

By Rajul Pandya, Abraham Hodgson, Mary H. Hayden, Patricia Akweongo, Thomas Hopson, Abudulai Adams Forgor, Tom Yoksas, Maxwell Ayindenaba Dalaba, Vanja Dukic, Roberto Mera, Arnaud Dumont, Kristen McCormack, Dominic Anaseba, Timothy Awine, Jennifer Boehnert,
The Hidden Cost of Heat Waves: Citizen Science and the Harlem Heat Project
The Hidden Cost of Heat Waves: Citizen Science and the Harlem Heat Project

In an average year, high temperatures kill more people in the United States than all other weather-related phenomena combined (NOAA 2016), and in New York City two-thirds of heat-related deaths occur at home. Those most at risk are the ill and elderly, who tend to be home throughout the day. Yet few studies capture indoor residential temperatures in non-air-conditioned homes. 

By Brian Vant-Hull, Prathap Ramamurthy, Brooke Havlik, Carlos Jusino, Cecil Corbin-Mark, Matthew Schuerman, John Keefe, Julia Kumari Drapkin, and A. Adam Glenn
Atmospheric Studies from a Moving Weather Observatory
Atmospheric Studies from a Moving Weather Observatory

Vincent Schaefer's 1955 study on changes in atmospheric conditions between the base of a mountain and its peak was only one small facet of Project Skyfire. Originally aimed at reducing lightning caused fires in timber forests in the western United States, this project created a number of fascinating projects, including Schaefer's extensive research into cloud seeding. 

By Vincent Schaefer
Elevating Meteorological Understanding on Everest: Installing the Highest Weather Stations on Earth
Elevating Meteorological Understanding on Everest: Installing the Highest Weather Stations on Earth

Watch this presentation from the research team that installed the highest weather stations on earth: at the summit of Mount Everest. 

You'll also learn why there's such a desperate need for more high elevation weather observations and the challenges that the team faced in getting their gear where it needed to be.

By Baker Perry, Tom Matthews, Kyler Abernathy, Deepak Aryal, Dibas Shrestha, Arbindra Khadka, Aurora Elmore
CHAT: The Colorado Hail Accumulation from Thunderstorms Project
CHAT: The Colorado Hail Accumulation from Thunderstorms Project

Deep hail accumulations, sometimes up to 50 cm in depth, have occurred frequently enough to catch the attention of the National Weather Service (NWS), the general public, and social/digital media outlets.

Despite the extreme nature of these storms, adequate reports or measurements of accumulated hail depth are currently not collected or archived, and products to track or forecast these events do not exist, preventing guidance from being issued to emergency responders, transportation departments, and the general public.

By Katja Friedrich, Robinson Wallace, Bernard Meier, Nezette Rydell, Wiebke Deierling, Evan Kalina, Brian Motta, Paul Schlatter, Thomas Schlatter, and Nolan Doesken
Weather in a Pen Stroke
Weather in a Pen Stroke

Before today’s technology was available, skilled technicians plotted cloud and atmospheric observa­tions on weather maps by hand. New observations arrived over telegraph or Teletype, and the plotter would create a new map each time. The information arrived in an alphanumeric code, and the plotter would have to decode and record the correct data at the location of each station. The information had to be entered quickly in order for the plotted map to be current. It also had to be entered in a universally accepted format, and it had to be legible so that the analyst could use the plotted map.

By Robert Houze and Rebecca Houze
"What If?" Or The Importance of Standards
"What If?" Or The Importance of Standards

What if weather observations were made differently in each country, or even by State or region? 

We compare observations to understand weather phenomenon in order to predict future conditions and document historical ones. If each location took their observations differently, we would never be able to understand what we are looking at.

By Paul M. Fransioli, CCM
The Iguanas Are Falling
The Iguanas Are Falling

Well, it’s that time of year again. The National Weather Service in Miami has issued an unofficial warning for falling iguanas the week of Christmas. 

Developing Tools for Forecasting and Communication: The Human Role in their Design
Developing Tools for Forecasting and Communication: The Human Role in their Design

There have been many changes in the role of humans in the forecast process in recent years and many new roles that have been created in this era of social media, smart technology, and artificial intelligence. This webinar series details how humans will use machine learning and other techniques to develop tools that will assist forecasters, not replace them.

By Falko Judt, Greg West, Pat Market, Dan Nietfeld, Robert Hoffman, Neil Stuart
The Today Show's First Forecast on Television
The Today Show's First Forecast on Television

Watch TODAY anchor Dave Garroway deliver the national weather forecast via telephone and by hand.

By The Today Show