What Can You Say in an Elevator About Climate Change?

I’ve long been struck by how awkward it is to work the topic of climate change into casual conversation. Of course, it’s easy to see why the topic can be so touchy. The physical forces at work in climate change are massive; the implications for our lives and our planet are profound; the companies that produce greenhouse gases are among the biggest the world’s ever known; and one’s take on climate change is often viewed as shorthand for an entire world view.
 
So…how about that game last night?

Of course, none of us can convince every person we meet of the reality of anthropogenic (human-caused) global warming, or AGW, typically referred to more broadly as climate change. But many of us would like to have a chance to connect with someone unsure or dubious or confused about it, and perhaps nudge their minds just a bit.

There’s been an immense amount of research on climate change communication over the last 20 to 30 years, including quite a bit at my current writing home, the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication. And there’s an ever-increasing crop of practitioners who make their livelihoods doing climate change comms. So there’s no lack of knowledge at hand. 

Still, it can be a daunting task to keep up with the latest findings on climate science, follow what’s new in climate communications, and maintain some sense of what’s going through the heads of everyday people who are AGW doubters or dismissers. And that’s still a lot of people. Most Americans understand that global warming is real, and mostly because of fossil fuel burning. But in the latest “Six Americas” survey, conducted in spring 2024, a full 29% of respondents agreed with the assertion that “global warming is caused mostly by natural changes in the environment”. That number has dropped by only a few percentage points over the last 15 years.

So here are a few semi-evergreen points to keep in mind when you’re chatting with folks informally about climate change. These are drawn mainly from what colleagues have taught me and from what’s stuck with me after 25-plus years of writing and speaking on AGW. I hope these tips will prove useful the next time you're in an elevator—whether it's real or metaphorical—and you decide to break the ice.

Meet people where they are. Everyone approaches AGW from a different perspective. We know that social groups have an enormous influence on how people filter information and adopt viewpoints – perhaps now more than ever, in these hyper-polarized times. Few people want to be the odd person out among their friends, peers, and family, so it’s common for people to take positions that fit in with the people around them – often before they’ve had a chance to truly ponder AGW, or some other complex topic, on its own terms.

Avoid delivering a blizzard of facts and stats. Especially in a casual setting, it’s easy to go over the top and into the weeds faster than you might think. One of the most durable findings of research on climate communication is that the deficit model – the idea that people will be convinced if they could just get enough information – falls way short of explaining how attitudes and beliefs actually evolve. On the other side of the spectrum, you may encounter someone who jumps from one easy-to-rebut argument to a new one, their minds never budging an inch, in a rhetorical cascade known in its fullest flower as the Gish gallop.

Be ready for the “natural cycles” question. It’s super-common for climate contrarians, and even folks who are genuinely uncertain, to lean on the comforting notion that Earth is going through some type of natural warming cycle. We’re all familiar with the natural cycles of day and night and summer and winter, and there’s indeed striking regularity to the ice ages that have arrived roughly every 100,000 years for the last 800,000 years. But there’s no robust cyclic explanation for the amount of warming observed over the last century, and especially the last 50 years or so. Even if there were some mysterious, yet-to-be-discovered natural cycle at work, you’d then have to explain why all the greenhouse gases we’ve been adding somehow aren’t exerting the warming effects explained by basic chemistry. In fact, the amount of global warming observed to date corresponds well to what top-notch climate models have predicted for years, based on human-produced greenhouse gases – so there’s no need to invoke “natural cycles.” 

Stress the firmness of first-order AGW knowledge. In my talks and writings, I’ve often pointed out areas where there is still much to learn, such as AGW’s influence on severe weather. Such ongoing scientific debate takes nothing away from the rock-solid knowledge that tens of billions of tons of greenhouse gas we’re adding to the air each year are profoundly changing how and where energy gets stored in the Earth system. In short, it’s important for folks to know that valid research questions about the nuances of AGW don’t detract from the foundations of Climate Science 101. 

Emphasize the impacts. The handy Climate Shift Index, developed by the nonprofit Climate Central, shows in concrete terms and in near-real time how much (or how little) the odds of a particular heat wave have been boosted by AGW. And sea level rise is simply undeniable – including the type of “sunny-day flooding” that’s on track for massive increases in the next several decades, especially along the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic coasts. These are just two types of real-world impacts already happening to people and places we know well. 

Avoid doomism. No matter where things stand right now, people and organizations can do a great deal to help keep future emissions from increasing and thus keep things from getting worse. It’s not “hopium” to acknowledge that every avoided molecule of greenhouse-gas emission is a good thing. It’s also well known that the total amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, as depicted by the famed Keeling curve, is setting new records every year. That’s going to be the case going forward – by definition – until emissions are close to net zero and CO2 accumulation in the atmosphere stops. What’s less well known is that the rate of increase in CO2 emissions (versus concentrations) has been far lower over the past decade than it was in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. In fact, according to projections from the International Energy Agency and other groups, global fossil fuel emissions are expected to level out and begin dropping within this decade. To put this in household-budget terms, we're still adding to what we owe, but the amount we overspend each year is about to start dropping, which will put us on the road to an eventual greenhouse-gas budget that's balanced—i.e., net zero.

Does the pace of change need to step up? Absolutely. It’s also true that the trend is our friend, heading in the right direction. 

Eminent climate researcher and peerless communicator Katharine Hayhoe, now chief scientist at the Nature Conservancy, stresses the need for optimism in her 2021 book “Saving Us: A Climate Scientist’s Case for Hope and Healing in a Divided World.” In a recent book-festival talk available on YouTube, Hayhoe emphasizes how the first step in climate action is simply to talk about the subject:

“The goal is not to tell people about things, to lecture them, to harangue them, to harass them, or even guilt or shame them, heaven forbid. The point is to expand the number of people in the conversation….It knocks over that first domino that leads to a better future.”

*UPDATE: EVENT POSTPONED. Please stay tuned for rescheduled event date. 

Inspired by Bob Henson's insights on effectively communicating climate change? Now is your chance to dive deeper! We're excited to announce that Bob will join us on 17 September between 12:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m. ET for an Ask Me Anything (AMA). The AMA is an online discussion that will take place within the AMS Weather Band Community, which provides an excellent opportunity for AMS and Weather Band members to engage, ask questions, and learn.

Bob will answer your questions related to his article and general climate change messaging. Submit your questions ahead of time using this Google Form. Don't miss this unique opportunity to engage directly with Bob and gain further insights into climate and weather communication. 

We look forward to seeing your questions and hope that you will join us for what promises to be an intriguing and informative discussion!