The Long-Term Toll of Hurricanes

7,000–11,000—The number of excess deaths caused by the average tropical cyclone in the United States, according to new research published in Nature. Excess deaths are defined as those that are beyond what would typically be expected, and the study calculated that there were between 3.6 million and 5.2 million such deaths in the United States from 1950 to 2015—more than those caused by infectious diseases or traffic accidents. Rachel Young of the University of California, Berkeley, and Solomon Hsiang of Stanford University looked at U.S. data on both mortality and hurricane activity and used statistical methods to investigate pre- and poststorm deaths by distinguishing the abnormalities that could only have been caused by hurricanes. “We thought we’d see maybe six months or a year of a delayed effect,” Young says, but the researchers discovered that while the average hurricane causes 24 immediate deaths, excess deaths continued for 15 years after a storm. “We were so stunned,” Young says. While they plan to do more research to determine the causes of the additional deaths, there are many storm impacts that can cause harm to both physical and mental health, including damage to infrastructure, homes, and businesses; population relocation; reduced access to basic services; and increased pollution. Young notes that survivors can find themselves “in a version of the world where you have less money, you have less resources, [and] you have more pollution exposure.” The study found that among all age groups and when the probability of death was accounted for, infants (less than 1 year old) had the greatest risk of excess death from storms. Additionally, it showed that Black people have a higher risk of death than white people, despite a larger white population exposed to storms. “These are individuals who are dying years before they would have otherwise,” Young says. [Source: Scientific American]

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