Lightning Safety: Lightning Prediction System

The last full week of June is National Lightning Safety Awareness Week in the United States. Recent data show that lightning strikes around 37 million times per year and kills 21 people each year around the U.S. With statistics like these, it might make some wonder whether lightning can be predicted before it strikes, or if it can even be prevented, in the hopes of protecting life and property.

Lightning Warnings
Lightning warnings are an important tool for keeping people safe and are issued with the support of data from lightning detection networks and occasionally sensors that measure the electric field in the atmosphere. The goal of lightning warning systems is to alert of lightning that is moving into an area before it arrives so people can get to their lightning-safe places – substantial buildings with electrical and plumbing in the walls or fully enclosed metal vehicles.

Lightning Prediction
While it would be great to be able to predict whether lightning will strike the golf course we’re playing a round at, research suggests this isn’t possible to a suitable degree of accuracy. 

A lightning prediction system installed at a golf course in Illinois.

One case study found that a system claiming to predict lightning missed 49% of the storms that came near the golf course, issued all-clears too early 14% of the time, and falsely issued warnings 16% of the time. Other studies of electric field systems highlight the causes of the high false alarm rate, including dust, snowflakes, and electrically-charged raindrops, and the fact that cloud electrification does not guarantee lightning will occur. 

Data from lightning detection systems are a better tool for lightning warnings since most thunderstorms approach from elsewhere rather than developing overhead. 

Lightning Prevention
If we can’t predict whether lightning is going to strike the area we’re concerned about, why don’t we just prevent it from happening in the first place? Unfortunately, lightning prevention is just as unfounded as lightning prediction.

A study published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society found that the claims of lightning prevention devices are not “supported by the available experimental data or theory.” A more recent study found that lightning prevention devices at Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant and the Memphis FedEx World Hub did not reduce the amount of lightning at those facilities. 

Numerous baseball and football stadiums have these systems installed, but lightning still strikes, as illustrated in this map showing lightning data around the Great American Ballpark.

Lightning data within 1 km of Great American Ballpark between June 2019 and April 2022. A lightning prevention system was installed at the ballpark in May 2019.

Stay safe during lightning
If we can’t predict where lightning is going to strike and we can’t prevent it from striking, how can someone stay safe? Here are a few things to keep in mind:

1. There is no safe place outside during a thunderstorm! When you hear thunder or see lightning, it’s time to get inside. Since 2006, only 3/479 lightning fatalities occurred when people were in a substantial building or fully enclosed metal vehicle.
2. When you’re inside during a thunderstorm, don’t stand near an exterior door or window, and stay off electronics or plumbing that is connected to the outdoors. If lightning strikes nearby, the electric charge can travel through the wiring, plumbing, or door/window frames and shock you.
3. If you’re caught outside during a thunderstorm, keep moving to a safe place. Flee the tree and don’t do the “lightning crouch”.

Sixty percent of lightning and three-quarters of lightning fatalities in the U.S. occurs between June and August. Keep an eye on the weather forecast before your outdoor plans and consider postponing if thunderstorms are expected. If you’re outside and you hear thunder, just remember: When thunder roars, go indoors!