In Forty-five Years

In Forty-five Years

I first heard of anthropogenic climate change in 1975, when I learned that mankind was altering the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. I was astounded, but didn’t question the science. I accepted it. Though quite young, I was puzzled why so few people were discussing it or taking it seriously. I decided shortly thereafter that I would spend my life learning and better understanding what I considered to be the most important subject in the world. I studied math and physics, majored in atmospheric sciences, and obtained a graduate degree from UCLA. I have followed the progress of climate science ever since.

My career took a slightly different path—not directly related to climate science—but still connected through the core math and physics that underlies numerical modeling in the physical sciences. While employed in the aerospace industry, I performed work in many different areas involving math, physics, remote sensing, and atmospheric and ocean sciences. I recently retired, capping a long and fulfilling career in these fields.

As a child I loved music. I became a self-taught musician, beginning with piano (age 11) and guitar (age 14). I played by ear, learned to sing, and relished the great music of the 1960s! Throughout my technical career, I enjoyed music as a hobby. Given the available time after retirement, musical skills, and knowledge of climate change, I decided to compose and record a song about the subject. The remarkably hot summer of 2023 may have been the catalyst.
 
When “In Forty-five Years” was written, the atmospheric CO2 content was ~420 ppm. Compare that to the range of ~180 to ~300 ppm that has been in the atmosphere over the past ~2.6 million years (excluding the past century!). Over the past 2.6 million years, we’ve been in and out of multiple ice ages, and multiple interglacial periods when sea levels were tens of meters higher than they are today. Presently, the earth system is not in radiative equilibrium and global average temperatures are increasing to match current atmospheric CO2 levels. If we act fast, we can stabilize and draw down CO2 levels before global temperatures warm enough to accelerate the climate system’s significant natural feedback mechanisms. Fortunately, it is thought that these natural feedbacks have timescales that are long compared to years or decades. At present, the anthropogenic CO2 emissions are largely responsible for the observed CO2 increases from year-to-year (i.e., the earth’s natural feedbacks are not yet significant contributors). We have a little time while we still have control, before the natural feedback mechanisms begin to dominate.

“In Forty-five Years” is purposefully soothing and avoids doom & gloom. I felt the latter was surely not the right way to approach the subject. The song has a 1960s flavor (a la Simon & Garfunkel, Beach Boys, Beatles, etc.). I worked hard to create a song that is an OPTIMISTIC view of how we still have the ability to get things back on track. We’re running out of time, to be sure, but we haven’t lost control yet. The song ends with “If we do the right things today and tomorrow, then we’ll solve the problem in the decades that follow.” The fade-out is replete with a ticking clock, reminding us we can’t delay much longer!

I have written, recorded, and donated this song in the hopes that it is heard by many people. It was my intention to portray a positive message that may help to assuage the pervasive gloom & doom surrounding this subject. I invite you to listen, and maybe it will help move the needle. We all need to do our part!